THIS ERRAND RELATES TO CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19. PLEASE DO NOT READ FURTHER OR PARTICIPATE IF SENSITIVE TO THE TOPIC!

DESCRIPTION: A crisis has emerged among the muggle world. Starting in China, the virus, COVID-19, has vastly spread from continent to continent, causing numerous cases spanning all ages. Every muggle country fights for the health of their people with technology, but most ironically, by sticking together. Although everyone must stay in their homes and remain six feet apart from others, muggles are working hard to flatten the curve of how many cases are found each day.

A virus such as this is not new among muggles as they have had quite the fair share in past centuries. In the 6th-century, the Plague of Justinian; 14th-century, there was the Black Plague in Europe; 17th-century, New England Epidemic; 18th-century, Persian Plague and Yellow Fever Epidemic; 19th-century Bubonic Plague; 20th-century, Spanish Flu Pandemic; and 21st-century, H1N1 "Swine Flu" Pandemic. Now, the COVID-19, informally known as the Coronavirus takes wing.

Choose a country of your choice anywhere in the world and describe why and how this virus, COVID-19, is difficult to handle now than the past pandemics and plagues muggles have gone through before. You will present your findings in front of the Hogwarts Model UN committee which will consist of others who are presenting as well.

What is Hogwarts Model UN?

Hogwarts Model UN is an opportunity for wizards to assimilate the international magical cooperation which enables the wizarding community to thrive and coexist with muggle society. This program will be an opportunity for wizards to practice their diplomacy, communication and public speaking in an educational and fun environment.

Prerequisite: None
Word Count Requirement: 1,000 words
Group Type: Individual
Reward: 4 HP; 2 sickles
Deadline: May 18, 2020

DUE TO THIS BEING A SENSITIVE TOPIC TO OTHERS. PLEASE POST ON THIS THREAD, BELOW, FOR CREDIT ONLY.

Mars had never been quite up to date when it came to muggle news, even when they'd been living in the heart of Newchurch. The Castillions had always stuck to a more traditional, downright ancient, aristocratic way of life, choosing to leave worldly issues to those who truly cared about the world, rather than just the way they looked to its occupants.

Even so, news of the muggle plague COVID-19 trickled into Hogwarts and made its way to Mars' ears. It seemed like a very big deal. They hoped their brothers were doing alright at home. They had finished their homework for the day, dragging themselves out of the Ravenclaw Common Room and down to the Great Hall bulletin board. Every day they found themselves back here, staring at the sea of things to do.

Today, something caught their eye. A Model United Nations, huh? They'd heard of something similar back home; a couple of teachers had even tried to convince them to join, but they'd never had time. But it seemed interesting. They had no idea what they were doing as they scanned the poster, reading the instructions carefully.

Why was COVID-19 more difficult to handle now than past plagues or pandemics muggles had gone through? That was never a question they had thought they'd think about. It seemed like a lot of work, and Mars was rather brain-dead from the steady stream of homework their classes had been assigning. But still, an interesting concept.

Turning on their heel, they picked back up the stairs to the Sycamore dorm. Maybe they'd just read for today. A Model UN seemed like too great a project to take on at six in the evening, but they had a free day tomorrow and had finished all their homework so... well, they'd think about it in the morning.

----

The next day, they awoke to the sun just beginning to peak over the crest of the hills beyond Hogwarts Castle. They'd slept well, feeling far more refreshed than they had the evening before. Sitting up in bed with the covers still clutched in their arms, they stared out the window. The sky bled orange and pink, clouds fluffy over the sleeping campus. It looked like it would turn out to be a nice day. Hopping out of bed, they grabbed a spare set of robes and headed to the bathroom to get ready.

----

Walking down the stairs, Mars turned the thoughts over in their mind. They had an entire free day and nothing to do. Musing, they stalled by the library. There was something they were forgetting, no? Something important... oh, right! The Model UN thing.

Mars let their feet guide them into the library. There was hardly anyone in the building at this time of day. They set out through the place, looking for any information they could get their hands on.

----

A bit of exploring later, Mars had settled in a corner booth, a pile of newspapers and various other sources of information around them. The library had livened up a little; not by much, but there were a couple of wizards dotted around, noses stuck into thick books.

In their right hand, they clutched a quill, scribbling away at a parchment lying on the table in front of them. Every so often, they looked up an info source, eyes scanning rapidly, before jotting down more things.

After quite a few minutes, there was a sizable piece of parchment in front of them, full of scratchy handwriting. Mars fell back and sighed, relaxing into the cushions of the booth. Finally. Looking at the close-to-illegible script, they winced. What had the flyer said? This was meant to be presented in front of a bunch of other wizards? Welp.

Mars sat back up, fulling a fresh piece of parchment out from under the messy one. Guess it was scriptwriting time. They'd never hated public speaking, maybe enjoyed it even, but a script was always necessary. Leaning forward, they began to write.

Coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated as COVID-19, is a current muggle pandemic spanning the globe. The first cases of the disease were found in Wuhan, China, and quickly spread to other nations, notably Italy and the United States. I will be focusing on the US in this speech.

COVID-19 is currently known as a respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Its symptoms can span from none to severe, making it extremely easy to transmit, as muggles who don't display any symptoms often go into public spaces freely without knowledge that they are carriers. The virus is highly contagious and the transmission period is estimated to be around two weeks. Muggles 65 and older and those with underlying health problems are at the most risk, though the illness has caused the deaths of people not in such risk groups.

The current muggle solution to stop the spread of coronavirus is to shut all countries down in an effective quarantine. They have not found a cure, though testing is in progress and officials are unsure as to when the lockdown will end. Now, with the basics out of the way, we can turn to the question at hand: why and how COVID-19 is more difficult to handle now compared to past muggle pandemics and plagues.

I think it goes without saying that muggles, though still more or less primitive, have made significant leaps and bounds since the times when disease and plague were prevalent. Still, there is a history of ones not so far in the past that should be mentioned.

In 1918, the Spanish flu, or influenza, killed around a third of the world's population. This was in tandem to the events of WWI, phasing in and out between the war, and it killed far more muggles than battle did. This rapid spread and high death rate, however, can be attributed, in part, to the horrible conditions of the times; people had extremely poor hygiene and lived in cramped spaces. Muggle scientists were also unaware that virus transmitted disease and vaccines and antibiotics had not been developed. Globally, cases reached 500 million with a death toll of 50 million, a 2% death rate. In 2002-2004, SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, was another type of coronavirus that spread through respiratory droplets. However, though SARS had a death rate of 15%, it only claimed 774 live with 8,098 cases globally, mostly because symptoms were severe and it was easy to keep those with the disease isolated. In 2009, a strain of flu, H1N1, affected nearly a fourth of the global population, claiming 284,000 lives, though a cure was quickly found and produced.

As of now, COVID-19 has touched 4,006,511 lives and its death toll is at 275,703, with 78,503 dead in the US alone. That means it has about a 6.9% death rate, an evidently extremely deadly disease. The United States currently had the most cases. Comparing this pandemic to ones in the past, it is quite severe.

A couple of elements that make this pandemic more difficult to handle than those in the past include the way COVID-19 presents, media blowup, easier travel, greater population density, and the government situation.

A person who has COVID-19, especially a younger one, might not show any symptoms of the illness. This makes it far harder to isolate the carriers as was done with SARS, which allows the virus to spread through the population. This, of course, is solved with quarantine, but before the lockdown went into effect, the virus had already managed to travel worldwide.

I do believe it is worth mentioning the effect media has on the severity of a pandemic. Now that muggles are more connected than ever, information is readily available to anyone who desires it. While this is helpful in the education of the public, it also comes with its own drawbacks. For the sake of interest and views, newscasters can blow some things out of proportion, causing unnecessary panic. It also makes it easy to spread fake news, especially if the consumer cannot discern the credibility of the source of the information. The internet also gives rise to easy solidarity within groups that aren't always rational, such as the anti-vax movement currently sweeping through America. A survey conducted by the muggle Harris Poll on behalf of the American Osteopathic Association revealed that out of 2,000 US adults, almost 45% of them doubt vaccine safety. This is only perpetuated by support groups readily available online.

Developments in muggle technology and medicine also add to the difficulty surrounding this pandemic. It is far easier now than ever to travel around the world, especially compared to 1918, which makes it infinitely easier to spread this virus globally. Additionally, with developments in muggle medicine, the average birth rate has encompassed the death rate, leading to massive growth in population density. The world is expected to reach 8 billion people by 2023, nearing the estimated carrying capacity of 10 billion. This massive population density forces muggles into compressed living quarters, raising the probability of contact with one another and therefore, coronavirus.

In the US, the current government response is less than ideal. Muggle president, Donald Trump, has been under much fire for the way he has handled the pandemic. Aptly stated by the New York Times, Trump has turned to a strategy of "deflect, reject, and minimize." He has attempted to state that the United States is far ahead of other countries put together in terms of the number of coronavirus tests and the quality. While this has some element of truth—the US has conducted the greatest number of tests)—America has not conducted more than the rest of the world put together and actually lags behind in terms of tests per capita. Trump has also stated that two predictions of rising death tolls done by John Hopkins University and The Institue of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington had not factored in mitigation. This is inherently false and perhaps can be seen as an attempt to make up for his own promises back in February that the virus could "disappear" and that case numbers were going down. The muggle president has been advocating for the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19. However, when asked, Trump dismissed all allegations of a cardiac tie, saying it was only "one study" and that "there [were[ studies that came out saying it's very good too." This is also not the whole truth. A review was posted encompassing seven completed clinical trials, five of which showed favorable outcomes and two with no change. But all were faulted with bias and varying degrees of poor design, and so, it was concluded that there was not enough data to support these two antivirals. This also did not take into account a study conducted in Brazil that was halted due to patients developing irregular heart rates. This advocation from the President has the power to harm people if taken seriously, which is another reason that this pandemic is more difficult to handle than those in the past. Trump's task force has also rejected the C.D.C.'s reopening plan, stating that it is safe for America to reopen. This puts even more muggles at risk, as returning too quickly could allow COVID-19 to come back in full force.

Overall, muggles can only make estimates as to how severe this pandemic will be in the end. Past pandemics and plagues have been difficult in their own ways, but there are many ways COVID-19 surpasses them in difficulty to contain and handle. Hopefully, information gained from the past will aid in the swift ending of coronavirus, but until then, muggles are likely to remain at home until June, July, or onwards.

My god. Mars nearly threw down the quill when they finished writing, clasping their right hand in their left, massaging gently. Groaning, they stretched, feeling their back crack after a good hour or more of hunching over the table. Staring at their handiwork, they felt more or less satisfied. It seemed like a good display of information, though they weren't entirely sure they had done it correctly. Oh well.

Allowing the ink to dry for a few minutes, they glanced around the library. There were more wizards and witches here now, a couple crowded together in bunches, chattering to each other. Sighing, Mars stood, picking up the items strewn around the table. They proceeded through the library, dropping everything off in the place they had found them. Then, going back to their speech, they rolled it up carefully, clutching it in loose hands.

They walked out of the library, set on path to the poster they had found before, ready to figure out what a Model United Nations really was.

WC: 2133

OCC Note: You can probably tell from the story, but I've never participated in a Model UN or done anything similar, so I wasn't entirely sure what I was doing. I hope this is okay. I learned a lot about COVID-19 at any rate.

STATUS: COMPLETE -- you have earned 4 HP and 2 sickles! Model UN is very much United-Nations-based where you speak on behalf of a country of your choice --in which you spoke a lot about US, so I would say your country was US-- in front of other people who would speak on behalf of their country about the problem at hand. You executed this post for the errand well. Congrats! Hope to see you more in Muggle Studies errands in the near future! -- Maya Galim

I N D I A

Pericles had attended assemblies. Throughout his youth he witnessed debates, congregations, and a handful of court trials. He had never before been a participant. The notion of a Model UN- though it may merely be practice- caused a flutter of nerves deep in his core. To suit the theme, the Ravenclaw came dressed in a combination of his House colors and semi-formals: greyish-blue suit, pristine undershirt, bronze tie, and shined shoes. Pale ivory hair had been slicked save for one rebellious wavy lock. Upon arrival, he glanced to Professor Galim, considering her with curiosity. While he would not attend her class until his third year, the young wizard looked forward to it immensely. What he did know of the non-magical community was generalities, thus the pure-blood looked forward to an opportunity in which he could explore their nuances, particularly in regards to technology. Papers were rifled in Pericles' hands for the sheer sake of keeping busy. Of course, the shifting and shuffling ceased once Mars began his presentation, a respectful silence settling over the first-year while he listened. When his turn came, he placed a folded paper placard at the front of his desk. The face simply read: INDIA. With a clearing of throat, he began his presentation.

"Located in Southern Asia, with a population of over one point three billion people, India is the second most populated country in the world. It borders six countries, one of which is China. The last epidemic to take place in India was a plague outbreak in 1994. Rocked by both the bubonic and pneumonic plagues from August twenty-sixth to October eighteenth, it suffered a suspected six-hundred and ninety-three cases with a total of fifty-six deaths. In just over a month, the spread of disease and panic ended. This year... India has faced an unprecedented modern crisis." With a frown too grim for his youthful features, Pericles plucked up one piece of paper he had brought with him. He began to read a timeline with somber softness.

Pericles wrote:December thirty-first, 2019: the World Health Organization (WHO) is alerted by Chinese officials about pneumonia-like cases in Wuhan, China, as New Year celebrations take place.

January seventh, 2020: China reports its first known death caused by a new strand of virus, Coronavirus. The patient is a sixty-one-year-old man in Wuhan.

January thirteenth: WHO confirms a case in Thailand, the first detection outside of China.

January sixteenth: Japan confirms its first case of infection.

January twentieth: South Korea reports its first confirmed case.

January twenty-second: the death toll in China rises to seventeen, with more than five-hundred and fifty infections.

January twenty-third: Wuhan is placed under complete quarantine.

January twenty-fifth: a Canadian man travelling from Wuhan is confirmed as infected.

January thirtieth: India faces its first case of Coronavirus.

Pericles placed his paper back atop the heap, folding his hands on the edge of his desk. "It took a mere month for the virus to reach India, and even then, its severity wasn't fully understood. On February second, the first death outside of mainland China was reported: that of a forty-four year old Wuhan resident who had traveled to Manila, capitol of the Philippines. By the eleventh of February, the WHO announced that the disease would be known as 'COVID-19', for the Coronavirus was technically discovered at the end of 2019. However, it would not be until months later- March eleventh- that the WHO would declare a global pandemic. Now, the largest Coronavirus lockdown in the world is taking place in India." Pericles spoke with the calm even cadence of one who had practiced in a mirror, endeavoring to memorize not only his lines, but more importantly the information. It was delivered in a careful chronological way, though that hint of glum still hovered over him like a rain cloud. "On March twenty-fourth, India's Prime minister declared that it's vast population- again, over one point three billion- that they must remain home for the next twenty-one days. This was the largest, most encompassing Coronavirus directive made."

Pausing to press his spectacles back up over the bumped bride of his nose, the Ravenclaw blinked down at his notes before lifting his head again. "The lockdown would begin at midnight, allowing only hours to prepare. Scores of muggles went shopping for essentials, thousands rushing home to their villages. In a desperate drive to enforce this directive, local law enforcement began to strike citizens with switches, publicly shaming them anyone who dared go out without good reason. At the time, my-..." Pericles faltered. It was not nerves this time, nor a loss of lines, but something else. His expression flickered before being replaced by a faux smile. "...my parents were visiting my grandmother, Tamasa, who lives in Kalale. Kalale is a village located in the state of Karnataka in India, one which harbors a covert magical community. Daadee Tama has explained to me that Indian culture has a different regard for food than us. Their diets depend upon local vegetables and meat markets, but now, anyone arriving at market without a mask- no matter how far they've traveled- will be driven away. While I can condone making masks a necessity, those who do not bring them are struck with sticks, punished with exercise such as squats or push-ups in the street, and humiliated with insults from the police."

Another glance to his notes, another hesitation, and Pericles turned to his next page of bullet-points. "In the current climate, especially under this lockdown, the homeless population has no means of earning a living. There are those who survive solely off of what they make in a day. If they do not work, they do not eat. Just as frighteningly, social distancing is not being enforced in the shelters. Crammed into close quarters, deprived of their daily stipend, we cannot expect this portion of the community to survive without suffering for that full twenty-one days." This realization was given seconds to settle before the boy began listing numbers. "India's first case was confirmed on the thirtieth of January, but as of today, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has tallied a total over eighty-five thousand cases, thirty-thousand recoveries, and twenty-seven hundred deaths. Central government data deduced there is an estimated one doctor available per eleven-thousand six-hundred people. Collectively, that population count makes for one hospital bed per one-thousand eight-hundred people. Without proper intervention, confirmed cases could reach one-million in the coming months."

Picking up his final sheet of paper and pinching it on both edges, Pericles did a swift scan to ensure he had his numbers correct before continuing. "That isn't to say the muggle government isn't making an effort to offer its people relief. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has explained the plan to release a stimulus package worth one point seven trillion rupees. That's worth eighteen point five-billion pounds, or roughly... four-billion, six-hundred and seventy-seven million galleons*. They intend to disburse this package through food security measures for poor households, as well as direct money transfers intended to aid the daily wage earners, small business owners, and low-income households. Low-income earners also receive five kilograms of rice or wheat per month, with an additional five kilograms of either rice or wheat per person added for the next three months, and one kilogram of pulses per household for that same period. Yet there is still much to be done."

"The muggle government has stated that they must increase testing and ensure isolation. I have yet to read confirmations of involvement from the Indian Ministry of Magic, and we must abide by the Statue of Secrecy, but there are still ways in which we can help! There is a spectrum of household magic which is commonplace to us, but may be the key to keeping our muggle neighbors safe. I would propose covert sweeps of scourgification, the use of Aguamenti to ensure access to uncontaminated drinking water, and a regulated distribution of the Pepperup Potion. I would also urge the Ministry to consider the expansion of homeless shelters, if it can be done in a way which would not be suspicious. The Undetectable Extension Charm, 'Capacious Extremis', is highly regulated. Yet it could be cast into, say, underground rooms, creating the illusion of especially large basements. This would afford shelters extra space, thus the availability for much needed distancing. Non-magical methods of assistance would be the donation of masks- allowing public access to markets- and plant resources."

"India may seem a far ways away from Hogwarts, but it's dear to my family, and- being so densely populated- its people are in desperate need of any help we may provide." On that last line, Pericles offered a small smile, bowing his head to those who had come. "Thank you."


*

Reducio

1.7 trillion rupees = $22.5 billion
$22500000000 = 4677991886 Galleons 6 Sickles 28 Knuts
https://www.beyondhogwarts.com/cgi-bin/gringotts.cgi

I've never done a Model UN before, but watched a few videos about approach and winged it from there! Thanks for the educational errand.

Word Count: 1,458

Status: COMPLETE

The Philippines

In all honesty, Jack really had no idea what he had attempted to get himself into and from the start he'd gotten a sense that he'd gone in a bit over his head. However, the boy wasn't one to back down from a challenge, particularly an intellectual or academic one. So when Professor Galim had put up the errand regarding something called Hogwarts Model UN, the Welsh boy didn't have time to second-guess his decision. As with the other errands he met the requirements for and was allowed to participate in, he signed up for it immediately.

The concept of Hogwarts Model UN itself was especially interesting to Jack due to his being muggle-born. With his love of history and the differences between what the wizarding world said it was as opposed to the muggle world's version, the opportunity to understand more about how the wizarding community coexisted alongside muggle society was hardly a chance he could pass up. As much as he enjoyed negotiating, arguing, and debating, the idea of being able to attempt incorporating those hobbies into something on as grand a scale as fostering diplomacy and communication between countries sounded absolutely thrilling to the young Slytherin.

He had more than just his hobbies to tie his personal interest to the assignment, however. Jack's muggle parents had been experiencing the COVID-19 crisis themselves since it had spread to Wales and had made the best of having to work from home however they could. He was well-aware through exchanged letters of what they were going through first-hand in order to reduce the risk of the virus to themselves and everyone else around them.

While at school the students were fortunate enough to stay healthy thanks to magic, this was not the case for the muggle world and the help that wizard kind could provide them was limited. It was for this reason that Jack thought the errand a good chance to explain to students less familiar with muggles how non-magical folk were able to deal with and overcome pandemics from the past, as well as the measures they were taking to tackle the newest threat to muggle health worldwide.

As if all of that weren't enough reasons to participate, Jack had a special determination to prove himself to Professor Galim. Though her subject as a teacher, Muggle Studies, wasn't one he was yet allowed to take as a mere first year, the redhead had gotten into a debate of sorts with the woman before. This had been in regards to the inclusion of the derogatory term, 'mudblood', in the name of the club that he and Wren Caster had founded together. While he still wasn't entirely sure what the muggle-born professor made of him, Jack wasn't about to turn down the chance to get in her good graces if he could after the stunt he'd pulled.

The whole thing ended up being quite a bit more intimidating than the boy had first imagined it to be. Those few other participants who had attempted to sign up for the errand had clearly done their research, and while Jack had done his own fair share, there was always the unassailable notion that everyone else had learned about and ultimately knew more than he did regarding this Model UN thingy. Granted, each student had their own method of presenting their findings to everyone else, but the fact that the majority of them were Jack's year didn't allow him much room for forgiveness in his eyes when they were all doing so exceptionally well.

@Mars T'ien was not someone the Slytherin boy had personally met, nor @Ginevra Tsuchiya , but he knew @Pericles Dralt well enough to be daunted by the Ravenclaw's apparent elegance, poise, grace, calm composure, and confidence in all he seemed to do. Without anyone else to measure his own wit or intelligence against - not Flash Holmwood or Alan Vance, both of whom Jack had thought were just as set on completing errands as he was - the Welsh boy felt strangely out of his league among his peers for the first time in a long while. To Jack, Pericles might as well not have even been human with just how picture-perfect a paragon of an ideal student he made.

Oh well. There was no help for it now and no turning back. At the very least, even if he failed miserably, the redhead could say he'd done his best with no regrets. And, more importantly, he wouldn't have to fear that some lazy, slacking, minimal-effort ninny like Alan could have even had a chance to upstage him in any way, shape, or form. Unlike the infantile third year, at least Jack had tried stepping outside his comfort zone by taking on this errand. Better yet, with the significant lack of other students participating in the activity, it didn't matter how much research he had done; the boy could still feel relatively safe that his carefully-maintained slacker reputation would remain intact among those who saw and interacted with him on a regular basis.

Of all the countries Jack could have chosen, he decided to settle upon the Philippine Islands. This was because the country had fascinated him since he'd first heard about it from a pen pal in the United States; someone who had been there themselves and was half Filipino while also being half Indian. As Pericles had chosen India for his own presentation, Jack thought it just as well he'd picked the other country on his mind, but it both surprised and unnerved him a bit that the remarkable Ravenclaw had ended up mentioning the Philippines himself. Leave it to one of the most intellectual students of their year to emphasize the dangers of COVID-19 by including mention of as many other countries as he could...

His nerves must have been getting to him. As if Jack could resent anyone for being intelligent, much less using facts and logic to prove a point. Realizing he was probably just bitter he hadn't done such a through job himself, the Welsh boy berated himself internally a bit in order to get his mind back on track. The assignment as he knew it was to compare how much more difficult the COVID-19 virus was to handle in the present day for a specific country as opposed to how said country had handled past plagues and pandemics. Nothing in there stated he was required to mention other countries, right? And while that might have been a nice touch, no use beating himself up about it now. All he had to do was concentrate on what he had already prepared and what he could still do to make his presentation the best it could possibly be.

Oh, for Merlin's sake! It was just getting increasingly harder to concentrate when Pericles kept improving upon his already above-and-beyond speech. Having covered ethos and pathos appeals with his hard facts, timeline of dates, and myriad statistics, the platinum blonde was even managing to utilize pathos by mentioning his own personal relations to family living in the country he had chosen. It almost made Jack wish he had picked his own country to write about - almost - but that would have been far too easy and did little to suggest his regard for the world at large.

And then the infuriating, bespectacled student went so far as to propose magical solutions in order to assist muggle society as part of the coexisting wizarding community. And that final line about India being dear to his family? This guy was just too much. Whatever guilt Jack might have felt prior for having played a silly (yet well-intentioned) prank on Pericles and Breanna regarding invites to the Blossom Ball was quickly forgotten. He only wished now that he'd been able to see how the Ravenclaw had handled the situation; some shred of proof that the young man was human and did have illogical human emotions like the rest of them to cloud (what Jack was sure was) his otherwise perfect sense of reason. Unfortunately...that still remained to be seen.

In truth, as envious as he might have been of Pericles, the Slytherin was unable to actually dislike anyone who had successfully been able to demonstrate themselves as being so clever as the Ravenclaw had. At the utter minimum, the platinum blonde had a great deal of Jack's respect; but then again, he'd already had that from the start. It had only since climbed and the redhead had barely been able to directly interact with the eagle. Was he really only a first year?

It was a sad relief to Jack to find that he was not the one expected to follow up the other boy's talk. While he might have liked to take up the challenge, he knew what he had prepared was nowhere near that level. Regrettably (and somehow, to Jack, impossibly), the Hufflepuff girl who came after seemed to understand even more about how this Model UN thing was supposed to work. The Welsh boy studied how she addressed her audience and the actions she took such as raising her placard to communicate her desire to speak. Yes; formal! He had to think more formally! How he missed the internet when it came to researching things like this... But as things were, he was grateful enough to have been able to witness how the Hufflepuff carried out her interactions with the rest of the Hogwarts Model United Nations before he himself was expected to.

Finally, and yet all too soon, it was Jack's turn. He readjusted the collar of his shirt over the lapels of his formal suit and straightened his tie once more before raising his placard as the 'delegate of Belize' had done. He would most certainly have to thank her later for her help, unintentional or not, and express his admiration of the thought and effort she had so clearly integrated into the project. Jack was no fan of Hufflepuffs, but in his opinion, this one had proven herself more than worthy of an attempt to speak to her.

Once he was called upon by one of the committee members, as the Hufflepuff girl had been, he tried to recall the phrase she had used to address those present. "Honourable..." he began, then faltered, clearing his throat. It took him a moment to remember the whole thing, but once he did, he couldn't help wondering if it sounded stupid to repeat it right after the Belize deligate had. No, don't overthink it! Get a grip!

"Honourable Jury and Distinguished Delica - Deligates," he corrected immediately, unable to prevent the grin that spread across his face at his ridiculous blunder. At least maintaining a class clown facade among his classmates seemed to have some benefit when it came to overcoming his own mishaps during a presentation. Being able to laugh at himself kept him from freezing up with embarrassment to the point that he couldn't go on. Then again, was this really a matter in which others would approve of his laughter? The smile was abruptly wiped from Jack's face.

"This is the delegate of the Philippines speaking. As the previous delegates of the United States, India, and Belize have thoroughly addressed a great deal of the current problems the muggle world faces as a whole thanks to the CORVID-19 virus, I would humbly like to expand upon the unique challenges that my own country faces and has faced in the past which may not be as well-known to others."

Picking up his papers, he tried to remind himself that, if there was one thing he prided himself in, it was using words; knowing how to select the right ones to elicit the responses he wanted or to imply what he meant for his audience to think without stating it directly. What was a speech like this? Didn't he yearn to participate in an intense discussion with peers as profound and on the same intellectual level as himself? He needed to own this chance; relish this feeling and live in the moment.

"As the delegate of India previously mentioned, the Philippines' capitol city of Manila has been affected by the virus. Not only did President Rodrigo Duterte place the city on lockdown, but he also included the entire main island on which the city and its metropolitan area are located. This covered about 107 million Filipinos - half the country's population - with 12 million of those living in Manila.

"While the lockdown itself was not so much debated, experts around the world have highly criticized the response to the virus in the Philippines because of one simple issue: communication." He looked up to make eye-contact with each member of the 'jury' and 'delegates' as he continued, hoping to drive home the severity of the situation. It was one that actually meant a great deal to Jack himself, as communication and speech were among his favorite and most useful tools in everyday life. Furthermore, when invaders of history hoped to conquer another country, clever ones often targeted the country's means of communication first and foremost. This in itself spoke to just how critical the ability to communicate was.

"The lockdown issued by President Duterte was not specified in its technicalities and details. In delivering an address to his nation, he was unclear in his rambling and often contradictory statements. Residents became unsure how or why lockdown measures would be enforced in the region. Those Filipinos who were unable to access hospitals or work remotely from home were also left to wonder how their needs would be addressed.

"Confusion was present in both government officials and ordinary citizens alike as to just what the president intended to happen. Even less than 24 hours before the quarantine began, most people - including the health workers expected to treat patients suspected of having the virus - still didn't understand what it meant. After the first COVID-19 patient in Manila died on February 1st, the Philippine health department was harshly criticized for the lack of haste in their response. Since then, there have also been strained tensions not only between Fillipinos and the Chinese, but the rather large community if Chinese Filipinos known as Tsinoys.

"Government agencies and officials continued to contradict each other one week into the authoritarian-leaning president's so-called "community quarantine". With a lack of details as pertinent as the precise hours and areas to be placed under curfew, the entire nation has been under attack not only from fear and rising resentment toward people of different ethnicities, but from the chaos of confusion caused by lack of proper communication."

Jack paused, yearning to wipe the perspiration forming on his brow, but knowing better than to do so just then. Almost there...

"Taking a look at the past, the similarities of today's pandemic in the Philippines are startlingly similar to that of the influenza pandemic of 1918 to 1919. This, too, was a global public health crisis that affected many different countries and world regions with the same virological and epidemiological characteristics as in the Philippines. What caused the influenza pandemic to go down in history as peculiar was the portrayal of the disease, ineffective quarantine, bureaucratic problems, military mobilization, and other factors.

"The historical assessments of public health have yet to include admission of failure by authorities in combating the disease. It distresses me to point out the similarities between the time of the influenza pandemic and now. Even with improved communication systems and technology, muggles still have yet to correct a problem from the past that seems only to have become exacerbated with the contradictions of government officials.

"As the delegate of the Philippines, I would like to emphasize the importance of proper communication in order to stave off misunderstandings and keep fear at bay. With my nation turning against its own citizens for being of mixed heritages or of having been born in a different country, I can only imagine what such hostility might turn into if applied to the whole world. This is why communication is key in keeping peace and order among all peoples - not just in the Philippines or between muggles and wizards, but among all people worldwide."

He dipped his head respectfully to his audience before seating himself on order to signal the end of his turn speaking.

Word Count: 2,730
Sorry for all the rambling! Thank you for the errand. It was a fun assignment and I learned a lot - both about COVID-19 and Model UNs!

Cited Sources:

Reducio

- https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... -hong-kong
- https://www.arabnews.com/node/1641571/world
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/du ... ndemonium/
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/10/wu ... rs-spread/
- https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/covid-19- ... ilippines/
- https://www.jstor.org/stable/42634010?s ... b_contents

Country of Choice: Finland (Suomi)

It is arguable enough that for muggles, this pandemic is unlike what they've seen in the past. Because Finland is a European country, I will be using the black death as my primary example of comparison. The black death, otherwise known as "The Plague", was enabled by rodents, in which the bacterium partially blocked the guts of fleas, meaning as the flea bit into human flesh, it was transmitting the virus unto the human. The spread of COVID-19, however, has been enabled by the movement of humans. This, in a way, makes it more containable via methods of social distancing, whereas the travel of fleas and rodents is not something easily prevented. The Plague was also capable of killing young, healthy individuals, which is not something that has yet been widely observed amidst the Corona Virus outbreak.

The Plague struck Finland in 1710. The infection had spread from Turkey to Polan in 1709 after the defeat of the Finnish-Swedish army at Poltava. It particularly affected Helsingfors (Helsinki), and by the time that the frost came which caused the plague to dwindle, Helsingfors was practically a dead town. This plague killed 1,185 inhabitants of Helsingfors, which was two-thirds of the population at that time.

The percentage of death rates said to have been caused by the Spanish Influenza in Finland were only 33%, which was less than the Finnish Civil War brought. However, in 2006, Finland released a "Proposal of the Working Group on National Pandemic Preparedness" document, with this document aiming towards an influenza pandemic; which, as we will recall, COVID-19 is a strand of influenza. In section 1.2 of the document, it states this: " For the current Finnish pandemic preparedness plan, it is assumed that during a first pandemic wave of 8 weeks’ duration, 35 % of the population
may fall ill with influenza, of whom 10 000 to 36 000 may require hospital treatment,
and 3 500 to 9 000 may die." The document goes on to acknowledge that absentee from work would disrupt key parts of society. However, as we have seen with the COVID-19 pandemic, the muggle world did find themselves going into quarantine.

Reading the 25-page document, it's clear to see that while Finland tried to be as prepared as they possibly could for something of this nature to break out, this pandemic took everyone by surprise, and nations of the world found themselves unsure of how to proceed. "For the scenario of a significant fraction of the workforce falling ill within a two-month pandemic wave, a key component in developing pandemic preparedness is defining clear mandates regarding responsibilities at the national level and a detailed action plan for all administrative sectors, in addition to advance procurement of materials. This is a particular challenge for the healthcare services where a greatly increased workload needs to be addressed while much of the staff will be on sick leave and there is a shortage of hospital beds." One of the biggest reasons for the quarantine was the concern of healthcare workers being overwhelmed to a point of not being able to care for everyone, which Finland clearly acknowledged.

However, Finland acknowledged in the very first paragraph of section 1.2, "It is impossible to predict the severity of the next pandemic." It is unfair to compare this pandemic to something such as the Ebola virus that we saw a few years ago, as that virus did not spike nearly the same amount of numbers as COVID-19.

What many people don't know, is that according to the World Health Organization (WHO), is that COVID-19 has a serial of 5-6 days, whereas the common flu is 3 days. This means that influenza travels faster than COVID-19. However, the infections generated from one infected person is higher than COVID-19, sitting at around 2 to 2.5, than it is for influenza. So, while it may take longer for the coronavirus to travel, the spread of it is worse, while ultimately cancels the first one out in the event that quarantine doesn't happen.

Even though COVID-19 is a flu strand, it is impossible to predict these kinds of things. Even had Finland, or any other state, compared COVID-19 to something like our standard influenza or the Spanish flu, it would not have ultimately helped solve anything, as the spread is all different. Additionally, there is also a flu vaccine, and the muggle world has a basic idea of how to deal with the flu. This thought process is exercised again in Finland's preparedness document: "Early treatment of influenza patients with specific antiviral drugs may significantly alleviate the illness caused by the pandemic virus and thus reduce the impact a pandemic can cause for the society." The muggle world did not/has not solve(d) COVID-19 on their own. With each strand of the flu, a new vaccine will likely be needed, and ultimately, a cure. Many people seem to believe that the flu shot is a cure to the flu, but in reality, a vaccine does not double as such. A vaccine is meant to avoid something, but it does not create immunity.

This entire document is created with the idea that there would be an immunity shot designed on behalf of influenza, in which the vaccine would have worked for a while, but COVID-19 does not even have a vaccine, and the flu shot would not help anyone affected. Because there is no cure, not even a vaccine, all that can be taken by the muggle world is precautions, such as staying home, avoiding contact, etc. There is never a way to fully predict how a virus will affect everyone or how it will spread, so the muggle world was blindsided with this virus.

Many countries didn't have a prepared plan, however. Finland was one of the lucky few who had a general idea. Even then, their "general idea" of a plan proved to have many flaws in it. This goes to show that any readiness plan anyone would have come up with, while it has the general skeleton of a good idea, it won't be the ultimate solution. As has been proven with this virus, new things are discovered day after day, and it takes longer to find a "cure" than most anticipate, which makes it nearly impossible for even the most prepared of countries, such as Finland, to fully have a plan initiated.